Risk Management Concepts

Preparedness: Noun

1-The state of being Prepared; readiness.

2-Possession of adequate armed forces, industrial resources and potential, etc., especially as a deterrent to enemy attack.

 

In my professional life, Risk assessment and mitigation is a daily goal. My team discusses and outlines the present risks and objectives to the goals of the day. We each sign our safety plan and have dedicated risk awareness and reporting documentation throughout the day. It's what it takes to work in a DOD secured facility at a global defense supplier. It's impossible to remove risk, but you can take steps to mitigate that risk. The first and most important step is knowing what risks you are taking and learning the steps and equipment required to mitigate that risk. 

 

Ryan over at http://www.totalsurvivalist.com/  is doing a 4 part series on this idea and his take on risk management. Having a large amount of training on the subject, my thoughts were to kick start some discussion and hypothetical situations. Not sure if I'll get it all done in this post, but I'd like to get it started. 

 

We take risks, it's unavoidable. What we want to do is mitigate them as best possible. What types of risks are we speaking about? Oh shall we count the ways! Risks come in both easily identifiable and innocuous wrappers. Even the smallest risks can become catastrophic is we fail to heed the warnings and pay attention to them. 

 

The first and foremost that come to mind in the preparedness lifestyle would be risk to your body. Injuries, sickness, hunger, and thirst. Be sure to include mental acuity in your bodily risks. Next would be financial risk, followed closely by Legal, which is tied directly to financial risk. Lastly, I would include your reputation as a risk to be mitigated. We operate based on our perception by others. If I started to slip and didn't do my job correctly, but went through the motions, my job, financial means and reputation would be at risk. These are all tied in together and we have to look into our lives with a cold, calculating heart to truly assess our risks without the emotional baggage and ties. 

 

When calculating risks, you need to decide what losses you are willing to incur in exchange for the prize you are striving for. If you are like most, you are trading your time and energy for a paycheck or earnings. Your risks associated with that process are far more encompassing than you may think. It's not just trading time for money, it's trading time, safety, overhead, reputation, skill and energy for financial gain. Your work day starts at let's say 7am, but your risk starts long before then. There is a literal train of risk associated with even getting to work. The act of taking a shower kills thousands of people a year! Add the risks of driving, especially in the dark, and you're starting to see what I'm talking about. 

 

Mitigating those risks is where we need to focus, because most aren't in a position to just stop going to work. If you're like most (me included), you take a cup of coffee or water with you to re-hydrate or re-energize yourself. Drinking or eating can distract you from the road, leading to a higher incidence of accidents. Avoiding rush hour is another way to mitigate your risk. Driving to the job an hour early and grabbing breakfast at a shop near work can mitigate the beverage and rush hour risks. Choosing a path to work with the least amount of stoplights and interchanges can also mitigate risks due to the fact that these are the places with the higher accident rates. Even driving a car with a bright color instead of gray can help mitigate your risk.

 

My entire family was or is in the insurance business. They are experts in knowing risks. One of my parents was an underwriter for many different companies over their career. I was always told to never buy a gray or earth toned car because they can disappear in the rear view mirror of your fellow drivers. They have a higher risk of accidents due to being the same color as the road. Day time headlamps help with this. 

 

Stress is a killer, both literally and figuratively. Trading your limited time for a job that makes that time you have on this earth shorter is a poor choice. A bad trade, as it were, so consider this when you are deciding your compensation package. Those with heart disease genetic risks should be especially cognizant of these risks.

 

Parking close to the doors of the business has a risk. Higher traffic levels open your risk corridor to vehicular damage to your car, which devalues your vehicle. Additional risk!

 

Is the area where you work high risk for theft, violent crime or identity theft? Can you walk home or get help to you if there is a need? Does your company have a safety plan in place with proper access controls? Is your job inherently dangerous? Are you at risk from upset employees, customers, suppliers, the general public, disease, etc? Do you eat healthy at work? 

 

This list goes on forever. How can you mitigate the risks you have no control over? Carry first aid. Wash your hands. Be aware of your surroundings. Learn to defend yourself without a weapon if you cannot carry one at work. Improvise a weapon or decorate your office with a piece of art that can be a weapon. Lock your office door to control access. If you don't have a lock, use a door stopper. 

 

 

 

You will double your traffic exposure on your drive home, so act accordingly.

 

Evaluate the most mundane tasks, such as going to work, in order to understand your exposure to risks. It's important for you to weigh the compensation you are getting for the exposure. It's all about your personal worth.

 

Personally, I very elegantly talked my wife into telecommuting for her job. She is pretty high up in the food chain at her  NASDAQ top 100 global company, but she still gets to work from home in yoga pants and a t shirt. I have to admit, she's a horrible driver. Great wife and mother, excellent employment opportunities and growth potential. Yet not a soul in my family will drive with her. We mitigated her risk. It's entirely possible for you to do the same. 

 

Next up, your homestead.  

Normalcy Bias & Distractions, General Rambling

I'm as guilty as you are of allowing distractions to steer my goals and to delay my investments. The current weather and summer planning has pretty much dominated my existence for several weeks. The times it's rained we spent working on the house and the times when the weather was good was spent cleaning up outside the house. I know these are important things when you consider organizational strategy and remaining as grey as possible in your neighborhood.

One thing that was very surprising was that several of my neighbors have come to me asking for gun advice. I've done some repairs on their guns in the past, and have helped them with decisions on new purchases. Not very grey of me. I guess it's more important to me to have those people be prepared than it is to keep them in the dark. Then, just a few weeks ago, a news truck pulls in my driveway. A local reporter was given my name as the neighborhood watch captain. I'm not, but even people that don't even know my name, and live a block away know of me. They gave the gal a description of my truck and where I live to locate me. I ended up doing an interview and inviting her to a training class.

I've evidently been very remiss in my dealings with neighbors. I've allowed them a glimpse into my security abilities, and I've trained a few of them through the security consulting company I work for part time. I'm now seen as a leader (target) for armed incursions should there be any in a WROL situation; This was not my intention.

It's normal to want to keep your neighbors safe. It's in your best interest. They have no idea of my food stores or plans, but they do know I have the ability to defend myself. If that a good or bad thing is a 50/50 split. Good as a deterrent, bad because it makes me a target for thieves. We've had a recent dirtbag influx when a couple of the elderly people in my neighborhood passed away and the family took over the property. 4am fireworks, trash blowing around, their guests tossing food wrappers and drinks out of their cars, code violations, poor lawncare, etc. Nothing serious, yet, but still annoying. The new occupants have been hauled off to jail a couple times for minor court violations, but not for felonies. I've contacted my people on the local PD to have them investigate them, but I haven't taken a stand, yet.

This brings me to the point. I'm guilty of letting myself be lulled into normalcy bias by my domesticated home life and my comfy surroundings. My wife travels a bunch for work so I'm always dealing with my boys and keeping things together on the home front. It's a necessary distraction from the big picture and it's eating my days away.

I've upped my physical training regimen and got back into shooting more than just the carbine and glock, but the long range guns do eat up the pocketbook pretty fast when you consider you're buying 200+ grain bullets and using 4x the powder charge of a 223 round. Adds up quickly.

I do get to practice my fieldcraft quite a bit more with the shopping trips and errands I must run. That's the up side. My 14yo son is also starting to get some of the training I've wanted him to get involved in. He's grown 6 inches this year and is now taller than me, so it's time for him to get involved in his own self defense. He seems to be catching on. I rarely see him holding his phone while walking or in a public area.

Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures

The Title is often spoken by those that make a decision based in perceived desperation. A person at the end of their rope, so to say, will be tempted to use faulty logic in an attempt to justify their actions. Unless you've lives in a 3rd world country under abusive conditions, you cannot imagine the deplorable environment humanity can survive in. A person living in the USA has a much different outlook on what deplorable signifies to them.

When the title statement is uttered, and the person isn't danger of losing life or limb, I have a very indifferent attitude towards their logic. There are times when it's both logical and decisive, but for the most part it's overused. The "Desperate Measures" you speak of will more than likely be based in revenge than in defense of yourself or loved ones. Let's be cognizant of our situation prior to utilizing a non beneficial tactic or plan. The results of such actions may be less than optimal.

We must also be aware that in the instance where you put someone into a situation of pure desperation, they may act out in an illogical or suicidal manner. When a person perceives that they have nothing to live for, they are a prime candidate for a mental breakdown or violent outburst. We are, after all, only human. When a person or organization decides to destroy someone's life or livelihood, you should be aware that those actions can have far reaching consequences beyond the intent of the protagonist. We call that "the rule of unintended consequences".

Considering the depths at which the human condition is capable of sliding to, add in a little mob rule into the equation and things can go off the rails fairly quickly. There is no greater threat to logic than an angry mob. Anonymity within that nameless pool of humanity allows normally pliant individuals to reveal deeply veiled hate and violence to flow without repercussions. Their idea of desperate measures is rather vague and has more to do with the will of the mob than the actual affront. Ferguson should be a shining example of those actions.

When we look at current events, we see people making choices based on a receding standard of desperate. What we, as informed citizens, don't want to do, is to push people into desperate action. That goes for the government, taxpayers, racial divisions, religions or even your neighbors. Instead of firing the lazy guy at work, let him know that he needs to find another job. Tell him you have enough evidence to fire him, but felt it would be in the best interest of everyone involved if he or she just left on their own. Today's faceless corporate mindset leads to acts of desperation for those of our society that have never dealt with adversity.

The sliding scale of desperation slips sharply as generations continue to relish in the false narrative that everyone is special. Participation trophy generations will soon be a large portion of the work force. When that happens I can see a significant slide of our moral obligations and seeing the corporate world continue to decline the talent level to the point that the more able and motivated will become the minority. Sometimes tough love is necessary. A little desperation can be motivating, but if the person doesn't have the fortitude to endure, they may turn to illogical actions.

In a defensive situation, you never want to encounter a person with nothing to lose. They act erratically and will not respond logically. The best situation is to allow that person an exit from your vicinity. My rule is never to get close enough to a perpetrator to allow them to touch me. You can also use your situational awareness to keep desperate people away from you. This can be as simple as not going places where people go when they are depressed or down on their luck. Casinos, Bars, Liquor stores, Payday advance, Title loan co's and red light district areas are all prone to have people with nothing to lose utilizing their services. Steer clear. You are tempting fate by frequenting businesses in those areas. Even a justified shooting can lead to arrest, loss of your firearm and permit, loss of time from work and much more. A threat avoided if far superior to a threat overcome. YOU have something, everything really, to lose in that situation. Don't allow a person with nothing to lose to put you in their situation by not using your head.

Organization Is Part Of Your "A" Game

Time not utilized for the betterment of your situation is time wasted. I'm not saying you must lose sleep and not take time off, as those two items directly influence your abilities and mental health.
 What I'm discussing is how much time you spend chasing down missing or misplaced items, buying new items when you know that you've already purchased it, but can't find it. These situations have a negative impact on you and your family. This also goes for grocery trips, meal planning, your job, your future and most importantly, the legacy you instill in your children.

I'll be honest, my storage sections in my home are a wreck. I generally only keep a few things flawlessly organized. Those are my critical items that directly control my life. My toolboxes, safe, ammo storage, reloading gear, and my computer files are kept immaculate. I know where and how everything is in those places. If I need an item, I know exactly where it should be. If it's something I *might* need, all bets are off. It may take me hours of digging in the spare room to find a spare charging cord, computer cable or spare notepad.

My work truck is pretty much always dirty, I might have some trash in the back seat and there is pretty much always a few cardboard boxes and a roll of wire in the bed, but if you open up the tool box, you will see a perfectly organized tetris style stack of power tool boxes and trays full of ancillary parts. Everything has a place, and it all fits perfectly without extra room for it to bang back and forth in the box. It's all fitted so that nothing can move. When I'm working, I don't have time to waste digging through a pile to find what I need. The profitability of the job depends on my organizational skills. I find that people that don't deal with the same constraints deal with the issue differently. A friend of mine keeps his truck immaculate. It's neat as a pin inside and he never allows trash in the truck. He washes it constantly, the appearance being as important as the functionality. At times I will help him out and his shiny stainless steel mirrored finish tool box looks like a Home Depot threw up in it. He knows it's in there, but where is anyone's guess. The tools are like strata that must be dug up in order to find the buried treasure. The going joke between us is that when I die, he gets my truck tool box.

Another item that requires scrutiny above most is your larder and survival gear. Let's face it, when you need it, you NEED it. If your food buckets are in disarray, you will need to waste time you could be using to make your situation better on the organization of items that should already be stored properly. In a situation where a blizzard has dropped power, is your spare heater and/or generator gassed up and ready to go? Do you know where the funnel to fill the tank is? When was the last time you tested your emergency items?

Your situational awareness is also directly affected by your organizational skills. If your EDC items are in order, you don't need to go patting yourself to find your keys. You know where everything is, and you have developed a habit of keeping them in the same spot, regardless of your attire choice. This allows you to keep your awareness directed outward, not inward on your lost items.

Breaking it down (much like your preparedness) is a fundamental skill that must be learned in your own manner. Everyone organizes things differently in their minds, so everyone will organize their items differently. That's fine, but I do recommend organizing things in tiers. Firstly, organize the things you touch and use every day. Next, organize your critically important items, finally you will start organizing your long term sustainment items. This will allow you to make progress without it becoming overwhelmed in the process. Your personal efficiency will increase exponentially, as will your ability to determine your needs.

I've always found that the most successful people I know are the ones that utilize their time well, or use lots of it. Either you can kill yourself working countless hours, or you can make those hours count for more. I choose the latter. My family and my community are better served by my presence as a youth leader and head of household.