SWOT Analysis Per Total Survivalist Blog.

It's nice to see a quantifiable chart that really simplifies a rather complex subject. The SWOT chart that Ryan over at http://www.totalsurvivalist.com/2018/05/evaluating-and-managing-risk-2-swot-and.html has offered up us very easy to use for simple tasks and complex lifestyles.

I'm going to go ahead and insert my 50k foot view of my personal risk assessment into it. I'm not going to do it in the practical chart version due to my normally long winded answers.

Strengths:
1. Well placed, sought after career that is recession proof in the near term.
2. Stable 17year relationship with a sugar momma.
3. One lightly trained fighting age son in the house.
4. Well stocked and diversified physical holdings.
5. Well balanced and diversified skill set for backup income.
6. Tribe that can be relied upon.
7. Legitimately needed by my tribe.
8. Zero debt.

Weaknesses:
1. WAY too close to a population center
2. Indefensible garden home on a freaking golf course.
3. Dealing with a foot and an arm injury.
4. Cardio training is non existent.
5. Carrying way too much weight.
6. Sugar momma has zero interest in defensive training.
7. Youngest son can't keep his mouth shut.

Opportunities:
-Booming Economy plays into strengths 1,2,5,8. Weaknesses 3,4,5 will hamper my ability to capitalize on more income. I'm just too beat up at the end of the day to deal with more work. Motrin is my friend.
-Low priced Precious Metals gives me buying power with 1,2 and 8. Weakness 7 and maybe 2 are at issue with large physical holdings.
- Low priced training benefit/cost ratio. Strengths 1,2,3,4,8 play into this, Weaknesses 3,4,5 make things very difficult.

Threats:
-Economic downturn is mitigated with 1,2,4,5,6,8 and only weakness 3 hurts me here.
-Loss of income has same weakness/strength issues
-Health issue Same as the two above
-Pandemic has Strengths 4,5,6,7,8 for helpers and weakness 1 as a detractor
-Social unrest really depends on how intense it becomes. I work near the town, but geographically separated by a large river and many sprawling industrial campus sites. Only middle class homes between my house and work. Wife works from home with limited travel. There will be inpact, just not sure how severe. DOD will ensure site safety, but getting there could get dicey if we start seeing roving road blocks and highway sit ins. Weakness 1,3,4,5 come into play if I'm forced to walk home, strength 5 is my helper. I'm well trained in navigation and E&E concepts. My get home kit would be considered as strength 4. I've also switched to a grey man vehicle. The big diesel sits now most of the time and I have a very capable small 4x4 utility vehicle for daily travel. It's about as grey as you can get. No chrome, gray in color, tinted windows, quiet V6, matte black wheels....

A little more on my injuries. I was hiking with the scouts on an urban hike in February and my foot fell through some ice and bruised the bottom of my heel. It's never healed right and hurts pretty much all the time. Need to get it looked at because favoring it has caused other issues with the foot. As far as the arm, well, I broke it. We rehabbed our in ground pool and I had to re-bond and rewire the entire thing. I was pulling wire for the automatic cover when one of the wire spools jammed and pulled the ladder over onto me. It was going to hit my kneecap so I blocked it with my ulna. It got a pretty good fracture, but no real movement of the bone structure. I decided to finish the job and see how it felt. The wife was away the next 2 days and I didn't feel like dealing with a cast so I just took it easy. The fracture was small enough that it solidified the next day and I had no bone movement so I just went about my business with a rather large, odd looking knot on my right arm about 5 inches from the wrist. It's almost healed. The main issue I have with that arm is carpal tunnel. I have a lot of very technical large and ultra small work to do on aerospace parts machining equipment. My productivity is hampered at times. Luckily I'm in a supervisory role and only perform on hot projects and troubleshooting. That will change when or if this project completes in 2020. My left arm was already fixed a few years ago. It needed far more work done so I did it first.

High Level Risk Management

Remember the old saying "You can't see the forest because of the trees" or some such iteration? Well, it's a genuine thing in preparedness circles. Regardless of your intentions, bad choices in the beginning of your planning pretty much set you up for failure. You can shoot yourself in the foot by not assessing your choices without the emotional baggage of assuaging your ego. We all make bad choices, and until you can admit you made a mistake, you will continue making the same mistake.

Taking into account your plans for weathering whatever storm you are planning for, you must re-assess every once in a while to make sure you aren't digging yourself a bigger hole. If you move away from the big city to get away from the Golden Hoard, you need to make sure the place you are moving to is sustainable. If your previous location was more sustainable for mid to low level events, such as flooding or loss of employment, you might remain there until a more suitable location is in your budget. Planning for a high level event like a large scale civil disturbance, apocalyptic inflation or alien invasion is prepared for prior to lesser events, you are less likely to comfortably overcome your issues. Let's face it, it's more common to have a flood or tornado than it is for a high level event.

One could argue that in all likelihood, you would be better served to plan for things that you have dealt with before, rather than world ending scenarios. Can you fix your own flat tire with a plug kit and a pump? Do you carry them in your vehicle? Hopefully you are picking up what I'm putting down. Here's a list of things every American should be prepared to deal with any day of the week. Until you can positively answer that you can counter these rather benign problems, you don't need to spend a bunch of cash on exotic preps.

-Flat Tire
-Lost job
-Burglary
-First Aid
-Traumatic injury
-Winter storm
-Tornado
-Loss of water pressure
-Loss of wallet/purse
-Power Outage
-Broken windows
-Defensive use of force scenario
-Loss of access to bank accounts
-House fire
-Chemical leak
-Police action
If you have children
-Rally point to meet up in an emergency
-Plan for an abduction
-Code words for duress
-Counter surveillance techniques
-Established safe places and people

There's not much logic in preparing for an EMP when you can't even get home with a flat tire unless AAA shows up. If you can't deal with the little things, you need to start there! Don't get emotionally invested in a dystopian future you read about if you're not squared away in your self defense techniques. All that freeze dried food will be enjoyed by someone that's not you if you can't defend it or prepare it.

Risk Management Concepts

Preparedness: Noun

1-The state of being Prepared; readiness.

2-Possession of adequate armed forces, industrial resources and potential, etc., especially as a deterrent to enemy attack.

 

In my professional life, Risk assessment and mitigation is a daily goal. My team discusses and outlines the present risks and objectives to the goals of the day. We each sign our safety plan and have dedicated risk awareness and reporting documentation throughout the day. It's what it takes to work in a DOD secured facility at a global defense supplier. It's impossible to remove risk, but you can take steps to mitigate that risk. The first and most important step is knowing what risks you are taking and learning the steps and equipment required to mitigate that risk. 

 

Ryan over at http://www.totalsurvivalist.com/  is doing a 4 part series on this idea and his take on risk management. Having a large amount of training on the subject, my thoughts were to kick start some discussion and hypothetical situations. Not sure if I'll get it all done in this post, but I'd like to get it started. 

 

We take risks, it's unavoidable. What we want to do is mitigate them as best possible. What types of risks are we speaking about? Oh shall we count the ways! Risks come in both easily identifiable and innocuous wrappers. Even the smallest risks can become catastrophic is we fail to heed the warnings and pay attention to them. 

 

The first and foremost that come to mind in the preparedness lifestyle would be risk to your body. Injuries, sickness, hunger, and thirst. Be sure to include mental acuity in your bodily risks. Next would be financial risk, followed closely by Legal, which is tied directly to financial risk. Lastly, I would include your reputation as a risk to be mitigated. We operate based on our perception by others. If I started to slip and didn't do my job correctly, but went through the motions, my job, financial means and reputation would be at risk. These are all tied in together and we have to look into our lives with a cold, calculating heart to truly assess our risks without the emotional baggage and ties. 

 

When calculating risks, you need to decide what losses you are willing to incur in exchange for the prize you are striving for. If you are like most, you are trading your time and energy for a paycheck or earnings. Your risks associated with that process are far more encompassing than you may think. It's not just trading time for money, it's trading time, safety, overhead, reputation, skill and energy for financial gain. Your work day starts at let's say 7am, but your risk starts long before then. There is a literal train of risk associated with even getting to work. The act of taking a shower kills thousands of people a year! Add the risks of driving, especially in the dark, and you're starting to see what I'm talking about. 

 

Mitigating those risks is where we need to focus, because most aren't in a position to just stop going to work. If you're like most (me included), you take a cup of coffee or water with you to re-hydrate or re-energize yourself. Drinking or eating can distract you from the road, leading to a higher incidence of accidents. Avoiding rush hour is another way to mitigate your risk. Driving to the job an hour early and grabbing breakfast at a shop near work can mitigate the beverage and rush hour risks. Choosing a path to work with the least amount of stoplights and interchanges can also mitigate risks due to the fact that these are the places with the higher accident rates. Even driving a car with a bright color instead of gray can help mitigate your risk.

 

My entire family was or is in the insurance business. They are experts in knowing risks. One of my parents was an underwriter for many different companies over their career. I was always told to never buy a gray or earth toned car because they can disappear in the rear view mirror of your fellow drivers. They have a higher risk of accidents due to being the same color as the road. Day time headlamps help with this. 

 

Stress is a killer, both literally and figuratively. Trading your limited time for a job that makes that time you have on this earth shorter is a poor choice. A bad trade, as it were, so consider this when you are deciding your compensation package. Those with heart disease genetic risks should be especially cognizant of these risks.

 

Parking close to the doors of the business has a risk. Higher traffic levels open your risk corridor to vehicular damage to your car, which devalues your vehicle. Additional risk!

 

Is the area where you work high risk for theft, violent crime or identity theft? Can you walk home or get help to you if there is a need? Does your company have a safety plan in place with proper access controls? Is your job inherently dangerous? Are you at risk from upset employees, customers, suppliers, the general public, disease, etc? Do you eat healthy at work? 

 

This list goes on forever. How can you mitigate the risks you have no control over? Carry first aid. Wash your hands. Be aware of your surroundings. Learn to defend yourself without a weapon if you cannot carry one at work. Improvise a weapon or decorate your office with a piece of art that can be a weapon. Lock your office door to control access. If you don't have a lock, use a door stopper. 

 

 

 

You will double your traffic exposure on your drive home, so act accordingly.

 

Evaluate the most mundane tasks, such as going to work, in order to understand your exposure to risks. It's important for you to weigh the compensation you are getting for the exposure. It's all about your personal worth.

 

Personally, I very elegantly talked my wife into telecommuting for her job. She is pretty high up in the food chain at her  NASDAQ top 100 global company, but she still gets to work from home in yoga pants and a t shirt. I have to admit, she's a horrible driver. Great wife and mother, excellent employment opportunities and growth potential. Yet not a soul in my family will drive with her. We mitigated her risk. It's entirely possible for you to do the same. 

 

Next up, your homestead.