Wednesday, February 13, 2013

4th Generation Warfare Tactics Used by Dorner.

Let me Preface this entry by explaining that I'm not attempting to glorify his deeds. There are people dead that never wronged the man or even met him before he chose to take their lives. This has more to do with the unintended consequences of the police actions and tactics.

A single lightly equippped gunman has kept an entire city and surrounding cities police force polarized, exhausted and making mistakes in very short order. Can you imagine the decimation to the chain of command and morale had there been a small contingency of trained operatives doing small, coordinated attacks on the police? The confusion created would cause utter mayhem within hours of attack. Logistically the police wouldn't be able to staff or communicate effectively with their force. This would lead to further mistakes and injuries to both police and the public. The police aren't trained in military squad tactics unless they are a member of an elite team. Many aren't vets that understand the fog of war. They will act and communicate instinctively and clog the comms.

 This episode will cost the already cash strapped state and city millions of dollars to settle complaints and pay for the overtime of the officers. The drones, swat callouts and overtime will be an insurmountable amount of money. If this were to happen a couple times a month, how could the city and state possibly afford the financial burden?

The consequences of this episode has further eroded public trust, which plays right into the tenants of 4th gen warfare. Win the hearts of the people and the occupying force will lose intel sources and early warning signals. People were scared, terrified they might be mistakenly singled out as the person responsible for the episode. 2 cars were shot to smithereens and 2 women where shot as well. Without a doubt the authorities will live with this black eye for a long time. The more excuses authorities make for the actions of the officers, the less credibility they carry with the public. The listed causation for the actions of the assailant lead to the corruption of the LAPD.

Lets look at 4th gen (Guerrilla) warfare subjectively. What is it's purpose?
1 Create confusion
2 Break the morale of the occupying force
3 Make the occupation too expensive in lives and money to continue
4 Survival of the insurgency
5 Convert the will of the people to your cause
6 Make the occupying force tire itself out attempting to find you
7 Create fear in the command and rank and file of the occupying force

What did he do correctly? He created confusion, he made the police very aware of their mortality, he cost them some money, some believed he was right to fight back, he made the police make mistakes and he definitely scared the people who were on the list.

What he did wrong? Killing innocent civilians, Survive, bankrupt the police, tire the force out.

Tactically, his plan was a mess. He really had no backup plan to speak of. He had no secondary course of action should his primary plan fail. He counted on a single piece of equipment too much and it failed. He was isolated and had no way to evade capture. He gave up.

You cannot win an insurgency alone. There must be others to assist you, especially if you are known to your attackers. Once you lose that anonymity, you're toast. They can plaster up your picture and use the public for intel. It's impossible to move once they know the enemy. I think that was the key to his demise. Pride.

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